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Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast

FinalESPN

Away

Panthers

4-4-0

4–3

at

Home

Bruins

3-5-0

FLA 59%BOS 41%

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TD Garden · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored FLA favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3BOS50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers
Bruins

Scoring summary

  • P319:34Carter Verhaeghe Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (1), Gustav Forsling (4)4–3
  • P318:29Morgan Geekie Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (2), David Pastrnak (6)3–3
  • P39:58Eetu Luostarinen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (5), Aaron Ekblad (2)3–2
  • P34:46Elias Lindholm Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (5), Pavel Zacha (6)2–2
  • P32:46Pavel Zacha Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (1), Viktor Arvidsson (2)2–1
  • P22:01A.J. Greer Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jonah Gadjovich (2)2–0
  • P11:01Mackie Samoskevich Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (4), Anton Lundell (4)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P32:46Pavel Zacha Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (1), Viktor Arvidsson (2)FLA 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 7% → 21% +14
  2. P34:46Elias Lindholm Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (5), Pavel Zacha (6)FLA 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 20% → 46% +25
  3. P39:58Eetu Luostarinen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (5), Aaron Ekblad (2)FLA 3 – 2 BOS · FLA 54% → 84% +30
  4. P318:29Morgan Geekie Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (2), David Pastrnak (6)FLA 3 – 3 BOS · BOS <1% → 49% +48
  5. P319:34Carter Verhaeghe Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (1), Gustav Forsling (4)FLA 4 – 3 BOS · FLA 51% → >99% +49

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 59%

LeanHit
FLA 59%BOS 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
FLA 59%
ML FLA -155 / BOS +135
Pre-line forecast
FLA 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 58%
Ratings vs. market
−1.2 pts
FLA: Elo 57.6%, market 58.8%
Fair odds
FLA -143
BOS +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 3.0 – 2.5 BOS
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLABOSWhy
Team rating15551475Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+7−1FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +53 EloFLA 57.6%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 60.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 59.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 58.8%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatBOS
30th of 322.1Goals scored3.014th of 32
12th of 322.9Goals allowed3.118th of 32
26th of 32−0.7Margin−0.115th of 32
8th of 3252.8%Shot share46.9%23rd of 32
9th of 3290.8%Save percentage89.8%19th of 32
28th of 320–4Road vs home2–110th of 32
27th of 321477Opponent Elo150911th of 32
3rd of 321555Elo rating147525th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersBruins
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLABOS
Puck line1–65–2
Last 101–65–2
Favorite1–51–1
Underdog0–14–1
Overs–unders2–53–4
Overs–unders, last 102–53–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 6–8 BOS in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 14.