Boston Bruins at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- Pavel ZachaAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Mammoth- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Nick SchmaltzAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:37Dylan Guenther Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (2)2–3
- P215:57Clayton Keller Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (6), Ian Cole (2)2–2
- P25:46David Pastrnak Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (1)2–1
- P114:38David Pastrnak Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (5), Charlie McAvoy (4)1–1
- P14:20Logan Cooley Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Nick Schmaltz (5), Clayton Keller (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:20Logan Cooley Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Nick Schmaltz (5), Clayton Keller (5)BOS 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 65% → 78% +13UTA 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P114:38David Pastrnak Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (5), Charlie McAvoy (4)BOS 1 – 1 UTA · BOS 22% → 36% +14BOS 22% → 36%+14 pts
- P25:46David Pastrnak Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (1)BOS 2 – 1 UTA · BOS 38% → 57% +19BOS 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P215:57Clayton Keller Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (6), Ian Cole (2)BOS 2 – 2 UTA · UTA 37% → 60% +23UTA 37% → 60%+23 pts
- P310:37Dylan Guenther Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (2)BOS 2 – 3 UTA · UTA 56% → 86% +30UTA 56% → 86%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 66%
- ML BOS +180 / UTA -215
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- UTA: Elo 60.3%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- UTA -191
- BOS +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.3 – 3.2 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −17 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +72 Elo | UTA 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 65.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.24th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.68th of 32 |
| 24th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 57.8%3rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 10th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 146031st of 32 |
| 26th of 321477 | Elo rating | 149917th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 UTA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.
