San Jose Sharks at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Jeff SkinnerAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints2
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals3
- Clayton KellerAssists3
- Nick SchmaltzPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:51Macklin Celebrini Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (1), Alexander Wennberg (2)3–6
- P311:32Clayton Keller Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (4), Barrett Hayton (1)2–6
- P33:25Michael Carcone Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (1)2–5
- P30:54Nick Schmaltz Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (4)2–4
- P216:09Liam O'Brien Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brandon Tanev (1), Ian Cole (1)2–3
- P27:13Jeff Skinner Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (4), Vincent Desharnais (1)2–2
- P25:23Tyler Toffoli Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (4), Will Smith (4)1–2
- P113:31Nick Schmaltz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (3)0–2
- P19:39Nick Schmaltz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (1), Clayton Keller (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:39Nick Schmaltz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (1), Clayton Keller (2)SJ 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 68% → 81% +13UTA 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P25:23Tyler Toffoli Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (4), Will Smith (4)SJ 1 – 2 UTA · SJ 9% → 19% +10SJ 9% → 19%+10 pts
- P27:13Jeff Skinner Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (4), Vincent Desharnais (1)SJ 2 – 2 UTA · SJ 19% → 35% +16SJ 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P216:09Liam O'Brien Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brandon Tanev (1), Ian Cole (1)SJ 2 – 3 UTA · UTA 63% → 82% +19UTA 63% → 82%+19 pts
- P30:54Nick Schmaltz Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (4)SJ 2 – 4 UTA · UTA 82% → 94% +12UTA 82% → 94%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 69%
- ML SJ +215 / UTA -260
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- UTA: Elo 70.7%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- UTA -228
- SJ +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.7 – 3.8 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +153 Elo | UTA 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 72.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.030th of 32 |
| 32nd of 325.3 | Goals allowed | 2.04th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−2.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3234.8% | Shot share | 56.7%3rd of 32 |
| 28th of 3286.4% | Save percentage | 91.6%7th of 32 |
| 9th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 148227th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321382 | Elo rating | 149718th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  SJ |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–33 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 48–33 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–2 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.
