Anaheim Ducks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Chris KreiderGoals2
- Mason McTavishAssists3
- Leo CarlssonPoints3
Sharks- Adam GaudetteGoals1
- Will SmithAssists3
- Will SmithPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:46Leo Carlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (2)7–6
- P319:09Chris Kreider Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (2), Troy Terry (2)6–6
- P310:29Cutter Gauthier Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mason McTavish (4), Beckett Sennecke (1)5–6
- P35:34Jeff Skinner Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (2), Dmitry Orlov (3)4–6
- P219:29Chris Kreider Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (1), Troy Terry (1)4–5
- P217:14Adam Gaudette Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (1), Dmitry Orlov (2)3–5
- P210:34John Klingberg Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (3), Will Smith (3)3–4
- P26:19Alex Killorn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (1)3–3
- P25:21Mario Ferraro Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (2), Macklin Celebrini (2)2–3
- P115:14Beckett Sennecke Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (3), Olen Zellweger (1)2–2
- P111:53Cutter Gauthier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (2), Radko Gudas (1)1–2
- P111:12Ryan Reaves Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Gaudette (1), Nick Leddy (1)0–2
- P13:40Tyler Toffoli Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Will Smith (1), Macklin Celebrini (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:21Mario Ferraro Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (2), Macklin Celebrini (2)ANA 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 46% → 65% +19SJ 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P26:19Alex Killorn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (1)ANA 3 – 3 SJ · ANA 35% → 54% +19ANA 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P210:34John Klingberg Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (3), Will Smith (3)ANA 3 – 4 SJ · SJ 46% → 67% +20SJ 46% → 67%+20 pts
- P319:09Chris Kreider Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (2), Troy Terry (2)ANA 6 – 6 SJ · ANA <1% → 51% +51ANA <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT0:46Leo Carlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (2)ANA 7 – 6 SJ · ANA 51% → 92% +41ANA 51% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 55%
- ML ANA -135 / SJ +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- ANA: Elo 52.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ANA -124
- SJ +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +11 | ANA: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +17 Elo | ANA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −1.332nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 45.8%31st of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 0–1032nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3214–27 | Road vs home | 12–2932nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15041st of 32 |
| 30th of 321451 | Elo rating | 138832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  ANA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 55–27 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 51–24 | 48–33 |
| Overs–unders | 33–49 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 6–1 SJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.