Carolina Hurricanes at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Logan StankovenAssists2
- Logan StankovenPoints2
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- William EklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:25Jackson Blake Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (1), Logan Stankoven (2)5–1
- P31:52Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (1), Taylor Hall (2)4–1
- P218:39Eric Robinson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mike Reilly (1)3–1
- P214:14William Carrier Goal (1) Poke, assists: Alexander Nikishin (3), Jordan Martinook (3)2–1
- P24:38William Eklund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (1), Nick Leddy (2)1–1
- P21:24Sean Walker Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (4), Seth Jarvis (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:24Sean Walker Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (4), Seth Jarvis (1)CAR 1 – 0 SJ · CAR 66% → 81% +15CAR 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P24:38William Eklund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (1), Nick Leddy (2)CAR 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 19% → 35% +15SJ 19% → 35%+15 pts
- P214:14William Carrier Goal (1) Poke, assists: Alexander Nikishin (3), Jordan Martinook (3)CAR 2 – 1 SJ · CAR 63% → 81% +18CAR 63% → 81%+18 pts
- P218:39Eric Robinson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mike Reilly (1)CAR 3 – 1 SJ · CAR 82% → 94% +12CAR 82% → 94%+12 pts
- P31:52Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (1), Taylor Hall (2)CAR 4 – 1 SJ · CAR 95% → 99% +4CAR 95% → 99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 69%
- ML CAR -260 / SJ +215
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.1%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- CAR -227
- SJ +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.8 – 2.7 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | +8 | CAR: Brandon Bussi (no track record yet) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +93 Elo | CAR 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −1.332nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.0% | Shot share | 45.8%31st of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 0–1032nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3216–25 | Road vs home | 12–2932nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15041st of 32 |
| 6th of 321541 | Elo rating | 138632nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CAR |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–53 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 40–46 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 48–33 |
| Overs–unders | 43–54 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–0 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.