Calgary Flames at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Morgan FrostAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints1
Mammoth- Kevin StenlundGoals1
- John MarinoAssists1
- Kevin StenlundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:37Kevin Stenlund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P24:24JJ Peterka Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P21:16Barrett Hayton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (3), John Marino (2)1–1
- P18:37Rasmus Andersson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (1), Nazem Kadri (3)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:37Rasmus Andersson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (1), Nazem Kadri (3)CGY 1 – 0 UTA · CGY 33% → 49% +15CGY 33% → 49%+15 pts
- P21:16Barrett Hayton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (3), John Marino (2)CGY 1 – 1 UTA · UTA 47% → 65% +18UTA 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P24:24JJ Peterka Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 1 – 2 UTA · UTA 64% → 80% +16UTA 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P319:37Kevin Stenlund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 1 – 3 UTA · UTA >99% → 100% +0UTA >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 68%
- ML CGY +200 / UTA -240
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- UTA: Elo 64.8%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- UTA -212
- CGY +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.2 – 3.3 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −29 | +2 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.71 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +106 Elo | UTA 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.3 | Goals scored | 1.732nd of 32 |
| 26th of 324.0 | Goals allowed | 2.36th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.8 | Margin | −0.725th of 32 |
| 25th of 3245.2% | Shot share | 54.9%8th of 32 |
| 27th of 3287.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%15th of 32 |
| 5th of 321527 | Opponent Elo | 148028th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321484 | Elo rating | 149417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CGY |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–40 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 35–47 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 0–3 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.
