Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals2
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints2
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:53Tomas Hertl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (4), William Karlsson (1)4–2
- P36:38Jack Eichel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (2), Jeremy Lauzon (1)3–2
- P34:11Kaedan Korczak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (2), Mitchell Marner (3)2–2
- P210:00Jack Eichel Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (6)1–2
- P112:10Blake Coleman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P17:32Mikael Backlund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:32Mikael Backlund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (1)VGK 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 40% → 55% +15CGY 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P112:10Blake Coleman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneVGK 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 57% → 72% +15CGY 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P210:00Jack Eichel Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (6)VGK 1 – 2 CGY · VGK 20% → 37% +17VGK 20% → 37%+17 pts
- P34:11Kaedan Korczak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (2), Mitchell Marner (3)VGK 2 – 2 CGY · VGK 28% → 56% +27VGK 28% → 56%+27 pts
- P36:38Jack Eichel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (2), Jeremy Lauzon (1)VGK 3 – 2 CGY · VGK 55% → 82% +27VGK 55% → 82%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 61%
- ML VGK -170 / CGY +145
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 51.2%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -154
- CGY +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.1 – 2.4 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | 0 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +8 Elo | VGK 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.327th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 4.025th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −1.729th of 32 |
| 5th of 3256.7% | Shot share | 43.7%26th of 32 |
| 28th of 3285.9% | Save percentage | 86.5%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 0–118th of 28 |
| 30th of 321463 | Opponent Elo | 15264th of 32 |
| 9th of 321528 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  VGK |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–44 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–41 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 14–3 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders | 43–50 | 35–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–4 CGY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.