Boston Bruins at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Mason LohreiAssists1
- Charlie McAvoyPoints1
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Artturi LehkonenAssists3
- Artturi LehkonenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:23Martin Necas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (5)1–4
- P34:14Nathan MacKinnon Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (4)1–3
- P110:22Josh Manson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (4), Gabriel Landeskog (2)1–2
- P17:08Nathan MacKinnon Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (3)1–1
- P13:11John Beecher Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (3), Mason Lohrei (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:11John Beecher Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (3), Mason Lohrei (2)BOS 1 – 0 COL · BOS 30% → 45% +14BOS 30% → 45%+14 pts
- P17:08Nathan MacKinnon Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (3)BOS 1 – 1 COL · COL 54% → 69% +15COL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P110:22Josh Manson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (4), Gabriel Landeskog (2)BOS 1 – 2 COL · COL 68% → 81% +13COL 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P34:14Nathan MacKinnon Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (4)BOS 1 – 3 COL · COL 84% → 95% +12COL 84% → 95%+12 pts
- P317:23Martin Necas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (5)BOS 1 – 4 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 70%
- ML BOS +220 / COL -270
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- COL: Elo 66.9%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -234
- BOS +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.7 – 3.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +8 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +122 Elo | COL 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 71.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 1.83rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.63rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 55.3%6th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 93.9%3rd of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150614th of 32 |
| 25th of 321480 | Elo rating | 15582nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–1 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.