Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Michael EyssimontGoals1
- Sean KuralyAssists2
- Michael EyssimontPoints2
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals2
- Mark StoneAssists3
- Mark StonePoints3
Scoring summary
- P35:12Michael Eyssimont Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (1)5–6
- P34:05Mark Kastelic Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (2)4–6
- P32:19William Karlsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (6), Jack Eichel (6)3–6
- P218:24William Karlsson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (9)3–5
- P28:15David Pastrnak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (2), Elias Lindholm (3)3–4
- P26:35Tomas Hertl Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (1), Mark Stone (8)2–4
- P24:14Jack Eichel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (7), Ivan Barbashev (3)2–3
- P118:33Cole Reinhardt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Hutton (2), Colton Sissons (1)2–2
- P116:44Nikita Zadorov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (2), Sean Kuraly (1)2–1
- P13:35Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (5), Zach Whitecloud (1)1–1
- P12:05Tanner Jeannot Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (2), Michael Eyssimont (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:05Tanner Jeannot Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (2), Michael Eyssimont (2)BOS 1 – 0 VGK · BOS 34% → 48% +14BOS 34% → 48%+14 pts
- P13:35Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (5), Zach Whitecloud (1)BOS 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 52% → 66% +15VGK 52% → 66%+15 pts
- P116:44Nikita Zadorov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (2), Sean Kuraly (1)BOS 2 – 1 VGK · BOS 36% → 52% +17BOS 36% → 52%+17 pts
- P118:33Cole Reinhardt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Hutton (2), Colton Sissons (1)BOS 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 47% → 64% +17VGK 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P24:14Jack Eichel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (7), Ivan Barbashev (3)BOS 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 63% → 79% +16VGK 63% → 79%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 67%
- ML BOS +190 / VGK -225
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 58.3%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- VGK -201
- BOS +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.8 – 3.7 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −24 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.61 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +58 Elo | VGK 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 66.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.313th of 32 |
| 11th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 55.2%6th of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 88.0%25th of 32 |
| 1st of 311–0 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 146630th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321482 | Elo rating | 15318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  BOS |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–44 | 49–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 10–24 | 35–41 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 43–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–3 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.