Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Rickard RakellGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Ducks- Chris KreiderGoals2
- Leo CarlssonAssists2
- Chris KreiderPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:33Chris Kreider Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (3), Leo Carlsson (4)3–4
- P217:01Anthony Mantha Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (3), Bryan Rust (1)3–3
- P29:48Drew Helleson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (1)2–3
- P119:25Cutter Gauthier Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (1), Beckett Sennecke (2)2–2
- P19:42Chris Kreider Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Leo Carlsson (3), Mikael Granlund (3)2–1
- P17:01Rickard Rakell Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (3), Sidney Crosby (2)2–0
- P11:03Justin Brazeau Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (2), Evgeni Malkin (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:03Justin Brazeau Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (2), Evgeni Malkin (6)PIT 1 – 0 ANA · PIT 43% → 58% +15PIT 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P119:25Cutter Gauthier Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (1), Beckett Sennecke (2)PIT 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 38% → 56% +18ANA 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P29:48Drew Helleson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (1)PIT 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 55% → 74% +19ANA 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P217:01Anthony Mantha Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (3), Bryan Rust (1)PIT 3 – 3 ANA · PIT 24% → 46% +21PIT 24% → 46%+21 pts
- P318:33Chris Kreider Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (3), Leo Carlsson (4)PIT 3 – 4 ANA · ANA 51% → >99% +48ANA 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 57%
- ML PIT +125 / ANA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- ANA: Elo 51.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- ANA -133
- PIT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | 0 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +13 Elo | ANA 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.730th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.6%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 27th of 3213–28 | Road vs home | 21–2020th of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15023rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321475 | Elo rating | 145430th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  PIT |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–39 | 55–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 36–27 | 51–24 |
| Overs–unders | 45–37 | 33–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–2 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.