Pittsburgh Penguins at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Parker WotherspoonAssists2
- Erik KarlssonPoints2
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Cody CeciAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:29Sidney Crosby Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (2), Erik Karlsson (2)4–2
- P36:50Filip Hallander Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (2), Parker Wotherspoon (1)3–2
- P27:18Connor Dewar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (1), Ryan Shea (4)2–2
- P26:37Evgeni Malkin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (2), Erik Karlsson (1)1–2
- P19:04Kevin Fiala Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (3), Joel Armia (3)0–2
- P14:24Warren Foegele Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (1), Cody Ceci (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:24Warren Foegele Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (1), Cody Ceci (1)PIT 0 – 1 LA · LA 65% → 77% +13LA 65% → 77%+13 pts
- P19:04Kevin Fiala Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (3), Joel Armia (3)PIT 0 – 2 LA · LA 77% → 87% +10LA 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P26:37Evgeni Malkin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (2), Erik Karlsson (1)PIT 1 – 2 LA · PIT 10% → 22% +12PIT 10% → 22%+12 pts
- P27:18Connor Dewar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (1), Ryan Shea (4)PIT 2 – 2 LA · PIT 22% → 39% +17PIT 22% → 39%+17 pts
- P36:50Filip Hallander Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (2), Parker Wotherspoon (1)PIT 3 – 2 LA · PIT 43% → 72% +30PIT 43% → 72%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- LA 65%
- ML PIT +175 / LA -210
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- LA: Elo 59.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -186
- PIT +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 3.7 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −16 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +67 Elo | LA 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 4.027th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.5 | Margin | −1.026th of 32 |
| 21st of 3247.5% | Shot share | 51.3%16th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 86.5%28th of 32 |
| 13th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 32 |
| 25th of 321484 | Opponent Elo | 15372nd of 32 |
| 26th of 321473 | Elo rating | 152311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  PIT |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–39 | 43–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 24–32 |
| Underdog | 36–27 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders | 45–37 | 39–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–1 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.