Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
SharksScoring summary
- P319:38Evgeni Malkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (4), Erik Karlsson (3)3–0
- P37:02Anthony Mantha Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (1), Evgeni Malkin (7)2–0
- P27:35Sidney Crosby Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (1), Rickard Rakell (3)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:35Sidney Crosby Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (1), Rickard Rakell (3)PIT 1 – 0 SJ · PIT 57% → 75% +18PIT 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P37:02Anthony Mantha Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (1), Evgeni Malkin (7)PIT 2 – 0 SJ · PIT 82% → 95% +14PIT 82% → 95%+14 pts
- P319:38Evgeni Malkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (4), Erik Karlsson (3)PIT 3 – 0 SJ · PIT 100% → 100% +0PIT 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML PIT -165 / SJ +140
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 62.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -149
- SJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +5 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +87 Elo | PIT 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 5.532nd of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −2.332nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3246.9% | Shot share | 35.6%32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 85.5%31st of 32 |
| 8th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 0–328th of 32 |
| 24th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 150912th of 32 |
| 25th of 321478 | Elo rating | 137932nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  PIT |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–39 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 36–27 | 48–33 |
| Overs–unders | 45–37 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–1 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.