Vancouver Canucks at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Elias PetterssonAssists1
- Filip HronekPoints1
Penguins- Justin BrazeauGoals1
- Justin BrazeauAssists2
- Justin BrazeauPoints3
Scoring summary
- P35:56Justin Brazeau Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (3), Kris Letang (3)1–5
- P217:29Anthony Mantha Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (8), Justin Brazeau (3)1–4
- P216:18Sidney Crosby Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (4)1–3
- P214:21Thomas Novak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (2), Justin Brazeau (2)1–2
- P111:39Connor Dewar Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (3), Noel Acciari (2)1–1
- P11:18Conor Garland Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (3), Filip Hronek (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:18Conor Garland Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (3), Filip Hronek (4)VAN 1 – 0 PIT · VAN 51% → 65% +14VAN 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P111:39Connor Dewar Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (3), Noel Acciari (2)VAN 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 33% → 49% +16PIT 33% → 49%+16 pts
- P214:21Thomas Novak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (2), Justin Brazeau (2)VAN 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 49% → 71% +21PIT 49% → 71%+21 pts
- P216:18Sidney Crosby Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (4)VAN 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 71% → 87% +16PIT 71% → 87%+16 pts
- P217:29Anthony Mantha Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (8), Justin Brazeau (3)VAN 1 – 4 PIT · PIT 88% → 96% +8PIT 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 51%
- ML VAN -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- VAN: Elo 46.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- VAN -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.3 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +5 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +25 Elo | PIT 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.57th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.511th of 32 |
| 28th of 3245.0% | Shot share | 46.8%23rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 91.5%9th of 32 |
| 6th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
| 13th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 147030th of 32 |
| 15th of 321503 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.