Columbus Blue Jackets at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals1
- Sean MonahanAssists2
- Boone JennerPoints2
Golden Knights- Reilly SmithGoals2
- Mark StoneAssists2
- Mark StonePoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:14Brett Howden Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (7), Tomas Hertl (18)3–5
- P314:28Kirill Marchenko Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (12), Adam Fantilli (15)3–4
- P218:44Mark Stone Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (17), Jack Eichel (32)2–4
- P213:07Jack Eichel Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (19), Mark Stone (23)2–3
- P25:19Reilly Smith Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (35), Mark Stone (22)2–2
- P112:20Reilly Smith Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Ben Hutton (7), Mitch Marner (34)2–1
- P110:41Kent Johnson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (16), Boone Jenner (14)2–0
- P18:24Boone Jenner Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (30), Sean Monahan (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:24Boone Jenner Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (30), Sean Monahan (15)CBJ 1 – 0 VGK · CBJ 45% → 61% +16CBJ 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P112:20Reilly Smith Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Ben Hutton (7), Mitch Marner (34)CBJ 2 – 1 VGK · VGK 24% → 38% +14VGK 24% → 38%+14 pts
- P25:19Reilly Smith Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (35), Mark Stone (22)CBJ 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 35% → 54% +19VGK 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P213:07Jack Eichel Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (19), Mark Stone (23)CBJ 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 53% → 74% +20VGK 53% → 74%+20 pts
- P218:44Mark Stone Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (17), Jack Eichel (32)CBJ 2 – 4 VGK · VGK 75% → 90% +15VGK 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 55%
- ML CBJ +114 / VGK -135
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 58.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -123
- CBJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.1 – 3.4 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −2 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +57 Elo | VGK 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 61.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 53.8%3rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.4%30th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 26th of 329–13 | Road vs home | 8–1228th of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 32 |
| 24th of 321481 | Elo rating | 150810th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–21 | 12–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 6–28 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 22–20 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–3 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.