Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Tomas HertlPoints2
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:47Tomas Hertl Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (33), Jack Eichel (31)4–3
- P315:55Reilly Smith Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brandon Saad (5), Ben Hutton (6)3–3
- P314:56Kyle Connor Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (20)2–3
- P38:13Brett Howden Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (14), Tomas Hertl (16)2–2
- P219:09Mark Stone Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (14), Mitch Marner (32)1–2
- P212:04Luke Schenn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (19), Adam Lowry (6)0–2
- P15:16Cole Perfetti Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Toews (10), Josh Morrissey (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:09Mark Stone Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (14), Mitch Marner (32)VGK 1 – 2 WPG · VGK 10% → 26% +16VGK 10% → 26%+16 pts
- P38:13Brett Howden Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (14), Tomas Hertl (16)VGK 2 – 2 WPG · VGK 20% → 49% +29VGK 20% → 49%+29 pts
- P314:56Kyle Connor Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (20)VGK 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 51% → 90% +39WPG 51% → 90%+39 pts
- P315:55Reilly Smith Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brandon Saad (5), Ben Hutton (6)VGK 3 – 3 WPG · VGK 8% → 50% +42VGK 8% → 50%+42 pts
- OT4:47Tomas Hertl Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (33), Jack Eichel (31)VGK 4 – 3 WPG · VGK 50% → >99% +50VGK 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 52%
- ML VGK -102 / WPG -118
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- WPG: Elo 56.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- WPG -107
- VGK +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.7 – 2.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +46 Elo | WPG 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.6% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%18th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 21st of 329–11 | Road vs home | 8–1025th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 12th of 321506 | Elo rating | 150811th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–29 | 18–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–28 | 10–16 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 5–1 WPG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.