Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Kyle ConnorAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints2
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals2
- Shane PintoAssists1
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:28Claude Giroux Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (21), Shane Pinto (9)2–4
- P310:10Kyle Connor Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (13), Josh Morrissey (26)2–3
- P215:50Drake Batherson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (24), Dylan Cozens (19)1–3
- P25:56Thomas Chabot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (8), Ridly Greig (10)1–2
- P115:03Thomas Chabot Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (13)1–1
- P112:08Adam Lowry Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (29)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:08Adam Lowry Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (29)WPG 1 – 0 OTT · WPG 48% → 64% +16WPG 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P115:03Thomas Chabot Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (13)WPG 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 35% → 52% +16OTT 35% → 52%+16 pts
- P25:56Thomas Chabot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (8), Ridly Greig (10)WPG 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 52% → 70% +18OTT 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P215:50Drake Batherson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (24), Dylan Cozens (19)WPG 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 73% → 88% +15OTT 73% → 88%+15 pts
- P310:10Kyle Connor Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (13), Josh Morrissey (26)WPG 2 – 3 OTT · WPG 3% → 18% +14WPG 3% → 18%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 52%
- ML WPG +100 / OTT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 52.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -109
- WPG +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.7 – 2.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +17 Elo | OTT 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.110th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.4% | Shot share | 52.3%6th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 87.8%32nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 30th of 327–14 | Road vs home | 9–1021st of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 32 |
| 10th of 321512 | Elo rating | 150214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–21 | 16–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 7–21 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18 | 23–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–2 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.