Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Justin SourdifAssists2
- Tom WilsonPoints2
Senators- Nick JensenGoals1
- Shane PintoAssists2
- Shane PintoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:38Fabian Zetterlund Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (11), Tim Stützle (23)3–4
- P315:53Aliaksei Protas Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (8), Tom Wilson (20)3–3
- P32:47David Perron Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (6), Nick Cousins (4)2–3
- P219:31Ridly Greig Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Shane Pinto (8), Michael Amadio (9)2–2
- P27:42Nick Jensen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (20), Shane Pinto (7)2–1
- P118:59Dylan Strome Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (15), Jakob Chychrun (16)2–0
- P18:13Tom Wilson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:42Nick Jensen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (20), Shane Pinto (7)WSH 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 20% → 37% +17OTT 20% → 37%+17 pts
- P219:31Ridly Greig Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Shane Pinto (8), Michael Amadio (9)WSH 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 31% → 55% +24OTT 31% → 55%+24 pts
- P32:47David Perron Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (6), Nick Cousins (4)WSH 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 54% → 79% +24OTT 54% → 79%+24 pts
- P315:53Aliaksei Protas Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (8), Tom Wilson (20)WSH 3 – 3 OTT · WSH 7% → 48% +40WSH 7% → 48%+40 pts
- P317:38Fabian Zetterlund Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (11), Tim Stützle (23)WSH 3 – 4 OTT · OTT 52% → 97% +45OTT 52% → 97%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 58%
- ML WSH +130 / OTT -155
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 55.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +37 Elo | OTT 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.4 | Margin | 0.012th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 52.3%5th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 87.7%32nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 17th of 329–10 | Road vs home | 8–1022nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149331st of 32 |
| 8th of 321526 | Elo rating | 150015th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–17 | 16–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders | 20–20 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–4 OTT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.