Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Artem ZubAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints3
Capitals- Trevor van RiemsdykGoals1
- Ryan LeonardAssists1
- Trevor van RiemsdykPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:22Drake Batherson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (5), Artem Zub (5)7–1
- P39:47Thomas Chabot Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (6), David Perron (3)6–1
- P35:04Trevor van Riemsdyk Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ryan Leonard (2), Nic Dowd (2)5–1
- P30:55Drake Batherson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (3), Claude Giroux (5)5–0
- P26:22Nick Cousins Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tim Stützle (5)4–0
- P24:27Dylan Cozens Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Drake Batherson (5), Tim Stützle (4)3–0
- P23:27Shane Pinto Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P11:58Dylan Cozens Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (4), David Perron (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:58Dylan Cozens Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (4), David Perron (2)OTT 1 – 0 WSH · OTT 46% → 60% +15OTT 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P23:27Shane Pinto Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 2 – 0 WSH · OTT 65% → 80% +15OTT 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P24:27Dylan Cozens Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Drake Batherson (5), Tim Stützle (4)OTT 3 – 0 WSH · OTT 81% → 91% +10OTT 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P26:22Nick Cousins Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tim Stützle (5)OTT 4 – 0 WSH · OTT 92% → 97% +5OTT 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P30:55Drake Batherson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (3), Claude Giroux (5)OTT 5 – 0 WSH · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML OTT +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 55.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- OTT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.6 – 2.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −7 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +41 Elo | WSH 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.3 | Goals allowed | 1.81st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.3 | Margin | +1.51st of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 55.5%3rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3285.0% | Save percentage | 93.6%1st of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 32 |
| 16th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149023rd of 32 |
| 18th of 321494 | Elo rating | 15357th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–3 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.