Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Jake WalmanPoints1
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists1
- Thomas ChabotPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:24Jake Walman Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (2), Matt Savoie (1)3–2
- P31:49Thomas Chabot Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: David Perron (1)2–2
- P30:13Dylan Cozens Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (4), Tim Stützle (3)2–1
- P20:49Isaac Howard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (2)2–0
- P116:31Connor McDavid Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3), Evan Bouchard (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:31Connor McDavid Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3), Evan Bouchard (1)EDM 1 – 0 OTT · EDM 54% → 70% +16EDM 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P20:49Isaac Howard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (2)EDM 2 – 0 OTT · EDM 70% → 84% +13EDM 70% → 84%+13 pts
- P30:13Dylan Cozens Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (4), Tim Stützle (3)EDM 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 9% → 24% +15OTT 9% → 24%+15 pts
- P31:49Thomas Chabot Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: David Perron (1)EDM 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 24% → 48% +24OTT 24% → 48%+24 pts
- OT2:24Jake Walman Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (2), Matt Savoie (1)EDM 3 – 2 OTT · EDM 51% → 96% +45EDM 51% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 54%
- ML EDM -130 / OTT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 52.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -119
- OTT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 2.6 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −5 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +18 Elo | EDM 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 5.031st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.5 | Margin | −1.730th of 32 |
| 5th of 3255.6% | Shot share | 53.6%8th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 82.9%32nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149421st of 32 |
| 5th of 321545 | Elo rating | 149419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | — | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–1 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.