Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals1
- Ty EmbersonAssists1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints1
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals3
- Mathew BarzalAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:51Bo Horvat Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (2), Emil Heineman (1)2–4
- P315:14Bo Horvat Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (2), Matthew Schaefer (3)2–3
- P217:56Bo Horvat Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1), Ryan Pulock (1)2–2
- P28:53Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (1)2–1
- P117:40Leon Draisaitl Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (5), David Tomasek (2)1–1
- P116:23Mathew Barzal Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:23Mathew Barzal Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 42% → 58% +17NYI 42% → 58%+17 pts
- P117:40Leon Draisaitl Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (5), David Tomasek (2)EDM 1 – 1 NYI · EDM 41% → 58% +17EDM 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P28:53Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (1)EDM 2 – 1 NYI · EDM 57% → 75% +18EDM 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P217:56Bo Horvat Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1), Ryan Pulock (1)EDM 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 23% → 44% +21NYI 23% → 44%+21 pts
- P315:14Bo Horvat Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (2), Matthew Schaefer (3)EDM 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 47% → 89% +42NYI 47% → 89%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 60%
- ML EDM -165 / NYI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 57.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- EDM -149
- NYI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +9 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +53 Elo | EDM 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.328th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321.7 | Goals allowed | 4.330th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −2.031st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3258.4% | Shot share | 56.5%4th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3294.0% | Save percentage | 85.4%29th of 32 |
| 1st of 311–0 | Road vs home | 0–224th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15206th of 32 |
| 4th of 321557 | Elo rating | 145928th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  EDM |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–62 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–54 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 50–54 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–1 NYI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.