Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Vasily PodkolzinAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints1
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals2
- Dylan LarkinAssists2
- Dylan LarkinPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:38Emmitt Finnie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (3), Dylan Larkin (6)2–4
- P37:33Leon Draisaitl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (2), Mattias Ekholm (1)2–3
- P217:05Dylan Larkin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (3), John Gibson (1)1–3
- P212:25Noah Philp Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (2), Brett Kulak (1)1–2
- P211:54Emmitt Finnie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (1), Dylan Larkin (5)0–2
- P28:51Dylan Larkin Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (2), Lucas Raymond (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:51Dylan Larkin Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (2), Lucas Raymond (2)EDM 0 – 1 DET · DET 47% → 67% +20DET 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P211:54Emmitt Finnie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (1), Dylan Larkin (5)EDM 0 – 2 DET · DET 68% → 84% +16DET 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P212:25Noah Philp Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (2), Brett Kulak (1)EDM 1 – 2 DET · EDM 16% → 32% +16EDM 16% → 32%+16 pts
- P217:05Dylan Larkin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (3), John Gibson (1)EDM 1 – 3 DET · DET 70% → 87% +17DET 70% → 87%+17 pts
- P37:33Leon Draisaitl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (2), Mattias Ekholm (1)EDM 2 – 3 DET · EDM 6% → 23% +17EDM 6% → 23%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 54%
- ML EDM -130 / DET +110
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 47.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 2.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −7 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +18 Elo | DET 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.46th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.86th of 32 |
| 4th of 3257.7% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 91.0%10th of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15265th of 32 |
| 5th of 321548 | Elo rating | 150614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | — | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–1 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.