Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
Devils- Jack HughesGoals2
- Nico HischierAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:57Curtis Lazar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (1), Ty Emberson (2)3–5
- P318:53Dawson Mercer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (4)2–5
- P316:30Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (7), Darnell Nurse (2)2–4
- P312:33Jack Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (4)1–4
- P310:37Connor Brown Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Glendening (1)1–3
- P218:16Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (6), John (Jack) Roslovic (1)1–2
- P216:02Jesper Bratt Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (3), Nico Hischier (3)0–2
- P28:07Jack Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:07Jack Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (2)EDM 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 49% → 68% +19NJ 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P216:02Jesper Bratt Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (3), Nico Hischier (3)EDM 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 71% → 87% +16NJ 71% → 87%+16 pts
- P218:16Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (6), John (Jack) Roslovic (1)EDM 1 – 2 NJ · EDM 12% → 28% +16EDM 12% → 28%+16 pts
- P310:37Connor Brown Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Glendening (1)EDM 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 82% → 97% +15NJ 82% → 97%+15 pts
- P312:33Jack Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (4)EDM 1 – 4 NJ · NJ 98% → >99% +2NJ 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 51%
- ML EDM -115 / NJ -105
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 54.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -104
- NJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.3 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −7 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +29 Elo | EDM 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.511th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3258.0% | Shot share | 52.1%12th of 32 |
| 6th of 3292.3% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 25th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 15292nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321552 | Elo rating | 149717th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  EDM |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–62 | 34–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 24–54 | 25–42 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 50–54 | 35–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–2 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.