New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals2
- Anders LeeAssists1
- Anders LeePoints3
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:57Anders Lee Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2)5–4
- P36:00Kyle Palmieri Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (3), Adam Pelech (1)4–4
- P218:47Dylan Cozens Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (2)3–4
- P217:45Anders Lee Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Max Shabanov (1), Matthew Schaefer (4)3–3
- P216:46Tim Stützle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (1), Drake Batherson (3)2–3
- P29:57Bo Horvat Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (2), Anders Lee (1)2–2
- P26:50Emil Heineman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (3), Scott Mayfield (2)1–2
- P25:32Shane Pinto Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (2), Thomas Chabot (3)0–2
- P117:01David Perron Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (2), Arthur Kaliyev (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:46Tim Stützle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (1), Drake Batherson (3)NYI 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 54% → 75% +21OTT 54% → 75%+21 pts
- P217:45Anders Lee Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Max Shabanov (1), Matthew Schaefer (4)NYI 3 – 3 OTT · NYI 24% → 46% +22NYI 24% → 46%+22 pts
- P218:47Dylan Cozens Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (2)NYI 3 – 4 OTT · OTT 54% → 76% +22OTT 54% → 76%+22 pts
- P36:00Kyle Palmieri Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (3), Adam Pelech (1)NYI 4 – 4 OTT · NYI 20% → 47% +27NYI 20% → 47%+27 pts
- P318:57Anders Lee Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2)NYI 5 – 4 OTT · NYI 49% → >99% +51NYI 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 56%
- ML NYI +120 / OTT -140
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 59.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -128
- NYI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.6 – 2.9 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −4 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +67 Elo | OTT 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 5.031st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −1.830th of 32 |
| 8th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 52.7%11th of 32 |
| 26th of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 83.7%32nd of 32 |
| 26th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321531 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 32 |
| 28th of 321464 | Elo rating | 149717th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NYI |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–44 | 37–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 14–38 |
| Underdog | 27–16 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 44–38 | 42–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–2 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.