Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints1
Senators- Olle LycksellGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Michael AmadioPoints1
Scoring summary
- P23:05Olle Lycksell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (2), Nick Jensen (2)1–2
- P17:57Michael Amadio Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (4), Artem Zub (3)1–1
- P10:29Tyson Foerster Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (3), Sean Couturier (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:29Tyson Foerster Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (3), Sean Couturier (6)PHI 1 – 0 OTT · PHI 43% → 57% +15PHI 43% → 57%+15 pts
- P17:57Michael Amadio Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (4), Artem Zub (3)PHI 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 41% → 57% +16OTT 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P23:05Olle Lycksell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (2), Nick Jensen (2)PHI 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 56% → 73% +17OTT 56% → 73%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 57%
- ML PHI +125 / OTT -145
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- OTT: Elo 57.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -133
- PHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −5 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +52 Elo | OTT 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 4.731st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −1.630th of 32 |
| 27th of 3245.9% | Shot share | 52.7%8th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 83.6%32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 32 |
| 1st of 321532 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 28th of 321461 | Elo rating | 149220th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–2 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–4 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.