Columbus Blue Jackets at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Damon SeversonGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- Damon SeversonPoints2
Senators- Jake SandersonGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists1
- Jake SandersonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:54Kirill Marchenko Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (11), Adam Fantilli (13)4–1
- P31:57Denton Mateychuk Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (12), Charlie Coyle (19)3–1
- P28:16Jake Sanderson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (22), Brady Tkachuk (12)2–1
- P21:21Damon Severson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (12), Cole Sillinger (14)2–0
- P115:58Boone Jenner Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Cole Sillinger (13), Charlie Coyle (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:58Boone Jenner Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Cole Sillinger (13), Charlie Coyle (18)CBJ 1 – 0 OTT · CBJ 36% → 53% +17CBJ 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P21:21Damon Severson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (12), Cole Sillinger (14)CBJ 2 – 0 OTT · CBJ 55% → 72% +17CBJ 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P28:16Jake Sanderson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (22), Brady Tkachuk (12)CBJ 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 24% → 42% +18OTT 24% → 42%+18 pts
- P31:57Denton Mateychuk Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (12), Charlie Coyle (19)CBJ 3 – 1 OTT · CBJ 67% → 87% +20CBJ 67% → 87%+20 pts
- P315:54Kirill Marchenko Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (11), Adam Fantilli (13)CBJ 4 – 1 OTT · CBJ >99% → >99% +0CBJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 66%
- ML CBJ +180 / OTT -218
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 61.6%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- OTT -192
- CBJ +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.7 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +1 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +82 Elo | OTT 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 65.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.19th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 52.2%6th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 87.9%32nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 23rd of 328–12 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321481 | Elo rating | 150613th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–18 | 16–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders | 20–17 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–5 OTT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.