Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals2
- Drake BathersonAssists2
- Brady TkachukPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:55Brady Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (5), Nick Jensen (6)0–4
- P24:50Claude Giroux Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (8), Ridly Greig (8)0–3
- P21:34David Perron Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jordan Spence (10), Drake Batherson (19)0–2
- P12:16Brady Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (18), Tim Stützle (19)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:16Brady Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (18), Tim Stützle (19)PIT 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 60% → 74% +13OTT 60% → 74%+13 pts
- P21:34David Perron Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jordan Spence (10), Drake Batherson (19)PIT 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 75% → 87% +12OTT 75% → 87%+12 pts
- P24:50Claude Giroux Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (8), Ridly Greig (8)PIT 0 – 3 OTT · OTT 88% → 95% +7OTT 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P313:55Brady Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (5), Nick Jensen (6)PIT 0 – 4 OTT · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 60%
- ML PIT +142 / OTT -170
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- OTT: Elo 60.0%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- OTT -152
- PIT +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −2 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +70 Elo | OTT 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 63.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 51.9%6th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 87.8%30th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 7th of 328–6 | Road vs home | 6–825th of 32 |
| 27th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 32 |
| 27th of 321473 | Elo rating | 150013th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–11 | 13–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 4–17 |
| Underdog | 18–3 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders | 17–15 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–5 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.