Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists4
- Connor McDavidPoints4
Penguins- Tommy NovakGoals1
- Anthony ManthaAssists2
- Erik KarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:46Danton Heinen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (11), Ryan Shea (11)6–4
- P318:41Connor McDavid Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (5)6–3
- P316:51Bryan Rust Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Anthony Mantha (12), Erik Karlsson (22)5–3
- P36:47Vasily Podkolzin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (30), Mattias Ekholm (14)5–2
- P29:36Evan Bouchard Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (36), Leon Draisaitl (29)4–2
- P26:24Erik Karlsson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (16), Rickard Rakell (7)3–2
- P24:35Matt Savoie Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alec Regula (2), Mattias Janmark (5)3–1
- P119:15Thomas Novak Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (11)2–1
- P111:52Connor McDavid Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (28), Evan Bouchard (26)2–0
- P111:38Zach Hyman Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (35), Leon Draisaitl (27)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:38Zach Hyman Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (35), Leon Draisaitl (27)EDM 1 – 0 PIT · EDM 56% → 71% +15EDM 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P119:15Thomas Novak Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (11)EDM 2 – 1 PIT · PIT 15% → 28% +13PIT 15% → 28%+13 pts
- P24:35Matt Savoie Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alec Regula (2), Mattias Janmark (5)EDM 3 – 1 PIT · EDM 73% → 86% +13EDM 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P26:24Erik Karlsson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (16), Rickard Rakell (7)EDM 3 – 2 PIT · PIT 14% → 27% +14PIT 14% → 27%+14 pts
- P29:36Evan Bouchard Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (36), Leon Draisaitl (29)EDM 4 – 2 PIT · EDM 73% → 87% +14EDM 73% → 87%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 56%
- ML EDM -142 / PIT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 52.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -129
- PIT +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +20 Elo | EDM 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 6th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 49.6%16th of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 28th of 327–12 | Road vs home | 5–1028th of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 32 |
| 7th of 321537 | Elo rating | 147626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–20 | 21–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–18 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 18–2 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–1 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.