Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints2
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:07Erik Karlsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (12), Bryan Rust (14)4–2
- P30:59Oliver Kapanen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (9), Ivan Demidov (18)4–1
- P30:44Bryan Rust Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (14), Thomas Novak (10)3–1
- P210:18Cole Caufield Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (26), Lane Hutson (19)3–0
- P24:37Brendan Gallagher Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (18), Juraj Slafkovský (8)2–0
- P12:54Alexandre Texier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:54Alexandre Texier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneMTL 1 – 0 PIT · MTL 45% → 60% +15MTL 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P24:37Brendan Gallagher Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (18), Juraj Slafkovský (8)MTL 2 – 0 PIT · MTL 65% → 80% +16MTL 65% → 80%+16 pts
- P210:18Cole Caufield Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (26), Lane Hutson (19)MTL 3 – 0 PIT · MTL 83% → 93% +10MTL 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P30:44Bryan Rust Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (14), Thomas Novak (10)MTL 3 – 1 PIT · PIT 3% → 11% +8PIT 3% → 11%+8 pts
- P30:59Oliver Kapanen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (9), Ivan Demidov (18)MTL 4 – 1 PIT · MTL 89% → 97% +8MTL 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML MTL +114 / PIT -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -123
- MTL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.1 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | MTL: Jacob Fowler (no track record yet) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +41 Elo | PIT 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.37th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.2% | Shot share | 49.5%16th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 5th of 328–5 | Road vs home | 5–727th of 32 |
| 13th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 32 |
| 24th of 321480 | Elo rating | 148620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–18 | 20–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–14 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 17–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–8 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 0–6 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.