Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Oliver Ekman-LarssonGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists2
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints2
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:16Nicholas Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none7–2
- P37:14Auston Matthews Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (5), Matthew Knies (20)6–2
- P34:37Sidney Crosby Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Kevin Hayes (2)5–2
- P213:58Nicolas Roy Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (4), Bobby McMann (4)5–1
- P24:53Dakota Joshua Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (5), Troy Stecher (2)4–1
- P22:24Bobby McMann Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (16), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (16)3–1
- P111:06Easton Cowan Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: William Nylander (21), Morgan Rielly (15)2–1
- P18:14Ben Kindel Goal (6) Batted, assists: Sidney Crosby (11), Bryan Rust (11)1–1
- P16:46Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (19), Auston Matthews (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:46Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (19), Auston Matthews (7)TOR 1 – 0 PIT · TOR 49% → 64% +15TOR 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P18:14Ben Kindel Goal (6) Batted, assists: Sidney Crosby (11), Bryan Rust (11)TOR 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 36% → 51% +15PIT 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P111:06Easton Cowan Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: William Nylander (21), Morgan Rielly (15)TOR 2 – 1 PIT · TOR 49% → 65% +16TOR 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P22:24Bobby McMann Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (16), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (16)TOR 3 – 1 PIT · TOR 67% → 82% +15TOR 67% → 82%+15 pts
- P24:53Dakota Joshua Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (5), Troy Stecher (2)TOR 4 – 1 PIT · TOR 82% → 92% +10TOR 82% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML TOR -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +1 | TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +31 Elo | PIT 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.111th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.7% | Shot share | 48.3%19th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–7 | Road vs home | 5–520th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Elo rating | 148819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–16 | 17–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 14–2 |
| Overs–unders | 17–7 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–2 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.