Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Ben KindelGoals2
- Philip TomasinoAssists1
- Ben KindelPoints2
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals2
- Morgan RiellyAssists2
- William NylanderPoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:43Bobby McMann Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (4), Morgan Rielly (7)3–4
- P36:55William Nylander Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (7), Auston Matthews (4)3–3
- P34:47William Nylander Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (12), Morgan Rielly (6)3–2
- P33:31Auston Matthews Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (4), William Nylander (13)3–1
- P211:50Ben Kindel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (16), Bryan Rust (7)3–0
- P117:56Ben Kindel Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Ryan Shea (6), Ville Koivunen (1)2–0
- P113:08Erik Karlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (8), Philip Tomasino (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:08Erik Karlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (8), Philip Tomasino (1)PIT 1 – 0 TOR · PIT 40% → 56% +16PIT 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P117:56Ben Kindel Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Ryan Shea (6), Ville Koivunen (1)PIT 2 – 0 TOR · PIT 58% → 74% +16PIT 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P34:47William Nylander Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (12), Morgan Rielly (6)PIT 3 – 2 TOR · TOR 10% → 28% +19TOR 10% → 28%+19 pts
- P36:55William Nylander Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (7), Auston Matthews (4)PIT 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 26% → 55% +29TOR 26% → 55%+29 pts
- P313:43Bobby McMann Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (4), Morgan Rielly (7)PIT 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 54% → 89% +35TOR 54% → 89%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML PIT +150 / TOR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.1%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -159
- PIT +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +9 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +78 Elo | TOR 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.728th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 50.6%14th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 88.0%29th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–312th of 32 |
| 25th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 148929th of 32 |
| 20th of 321492 | Elo rating | 15289th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–3 | 3–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–4 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.