Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Nick RobertsonGoals1
- John TavaresAssists2
- Nick RobertsonPoints2
Flyers- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Nikita GrebenkinAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:42Calle Jarnkrok Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (2), Simon Benoit (2)5–2
- P316:08Tyson Foerster Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (9), Matvei Michkov (5)4–2
- P30:33Easton Cowan Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (10)4–1
- P217:34Nicholas Robertson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (11), John Tavares (9)3–1
- P28:14Jake McCabe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (2), Matias Maccelli (3)2–1
- P16:16Auston Matthews Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (5), Nicholas Robertson (3)1–1
- P11:09Christian Dvorak Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Grebenkin (2), Travis Konecny (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:09Christian Dvorak Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Grebenkin (2), Travis Konecny (4)TOR 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 48% → 62% +14PHI 48% → 62%+14 pts
- P16:16Auston Matthews Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (5), Nicholas Robertson (3)TOR 1 – 1 PHI · TOR 37% → 52% +15TOR 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P28:14Jake McCabe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (2), Matias Maccelli (3)TOR 2 – 1 PHI · TOR 52% → 71% +19TOR 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P217:34Nicholas Robertson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (11), John Tavares (9)TOR 3 – 1 PHI · TOR 74% → 89% +15TOR 74% → 89%+15 pts
- P30:33Easton Cowan Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (10)TOR 4 – 1 PHI · TOR 91% → 97% +7TOR 91% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -120 / PHI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 2.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +11 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +21 Elo | TOR 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.68th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 46.0%29th of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 91.5%5th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 6–13rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 32 |
| 9th of 321524 | Elo rating | 146728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–9 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–2 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–1 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.