Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Nick RobertsonGoals1
- Nick RobertsonAssists1
- Sammy BlaisPoints2
Blue Jackets- Cole SillingerGoals2
- Charlie CoyleAssists4
- Mathieu OlivierPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:10Nicholas Robertson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (1), Samuel Blais (1)3–6
- P315:45John Tavares Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (10), Nicholas Robertson (2)2–6
- P37:50Mathieu Olivier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (7)1–6
- P216:58Dante Fabbro Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (4), Cole Sillinger (3)1–5
- P213:24Cole Sillinger Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (6), Zach Werenski (5)1–4
- P28:33Ivan Provorov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (5), Kirill Marchenko (5)1–3
- P22:43Samuel Blais Goal (1) Batted, assists: Jake McCabe (3), Steven Lorentz (4)1–2
- P111:16Zach Werenski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (5), Mathieu Olivier (3)0–2
- P16:56Cole Sillinger Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (4), Mathieu Olivier (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:56Cole Sillinger Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (4), Mathieu Olivier (2)TOR 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 53% → 68% +15CBJ 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P111:16Zach Werenski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (5), Mathieu Olivier (3)TOR 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 68% → 81% +13CBJ 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P22:43Samuel Blais Goal (1) Batted, assists: Jake McCabe (3), Steven Lorentz (4)TOR 1 – 2 CBJ · TOR 16% → 30% +14TOR 16% → 30%+14 pts
- P28:33Ivan Provorov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (5), Kirill Marchenko (5)TOR 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 71% → 86% +14CBJ 71% → 86%+14 pts
- P213:24Cole Sillinger Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (6), Zach Werenski (5)TOR 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 88% → 96% +8CBJ 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 53%
- ML TOR +105 / CBJ -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CBJ: Elo 54.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.2 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CBJ and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −35 | −11 | TOR: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.87 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +29 Elo | CBJ 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 50.7%13th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 32 |
| 25th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 150710th of 32 |
| 8th of 321528 | Elo rating | 149818th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–8 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | — | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–2 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–4 CBJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.