Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Miles WoodGoals2
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Miles WoodPoints2
Sabres- Ryan McLeodGoals1
- Alex TuchAssists2
- Alex TuchPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:53Miles Wood Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (4), Isac Lundestrom (2)4–3
- P313:55Miles Wood Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (2), Dante Fabbro (2)3–3
- P32:40Josh Dunne Goal (1) Poke, assists: Beck Malenstyn (1), Mattias Samuelsson (4)2–3
- P219:44Zach Werenski Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (4), Sean Monahan (4)2–2
- P214:12Ryan McLeod Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (4), Alex Tuch (6)1–2
- P211:39Josh Doan Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (5), Conor Timmins (3)1–1
- P16:09Yegor Chinakhov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:12Ryan McLeod Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (4), Alex Tuch (6)CBJ 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 51% → 72% +21BUF 51% → 72%+21 pts
- P219:44Zach Werenski Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (4), Sean Monahan (4)CBJ 2 – 2 BUF · CBJ 26% → 49% +23CBJ 26% → 49%+23 pts
- P32:40Josh Dunne Goal (1) Poke, assists: Beck Malenstyn (1), Mattias Samuelsson (4)CBJ 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 51% → 76% +25BUF 51% → 76%+25 pts
- P313:55Miles Wood Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (2), Dante Fabbro (2)CBJ 3 – 3 BUF · CBJ 12% → 50% +37CBJ 12% → 50%+37 pts
- OT2:53Miles Wood Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (4), Isac Lundestrom (2)CBJ 4 – 3 BUF · CBJ 50% → 97% +48CBJ 50% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 51%
- ML CBJ -105 / BUF -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- BUF: Elo 52.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -104
- CBJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +4 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +15 Elo | BUF 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 47.7%24th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 91.6%4th of 32 |
| 3rd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
| 10th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 15154th of 32 |
| 18th of 321496 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–3 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.