Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals2
- Jiri KulichAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Matthew KniesAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:28John Tavares Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (8)3–4
- P313:10Dakota Joshua Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (2), Brandon Carlo (2)3–3
- P37:06Tage Thompson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (2), Rasmus Dahlin (7)3–2
- P214:23Bowen Byram Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (2), Ryan McLeod (4)2–2
- P21:59Matias Maccelli Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: John Tavares (7), Matthew Knies (7)1–2
- P118:33Nicholas Robertson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (3), Auston Matthews (3)1–1
- P113:40Tage Thompson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jiri Kulich (2), Mattias Samuelsson (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:33Nicholas Robertson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (3), Auston Matthews (3)BUF 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 37% → 54% +17TOR 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P214:23Bowen Byram Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (2), Ryan McLeod (4)BUF 2 – 2 TOR · BUF 26% → 47% +21BUF 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P37:06Tage Thompson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (2), Rasmus Dahlin (7)BUF 3 – 2 TOR · BUF 48% → 77% +29BUF 48% → 77%+29 pts
- P313:10Dakota Joshua Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (2), Brandon Carlo (2)BUF 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 15% → 52% +37TOR 15% → 52%+37 pts
- OT1:28John Tavares Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (8)BUF 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 51% → 94% +42TOR 51% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML BUF +115 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- BUF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | TOR and BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −39 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · TOR: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.98 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +38 Elo | TOR 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.828th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.1% | Shot share | 49.8%15th of 32 |
| 4th of 3292.4% | Save percentage | 88.3%26th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 32 |
| 8th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 149220th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321489 | Elo rating | 15249th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–5 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.