New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jack HughesGoals3
- Jesper BrattAssists3
- Jack HughesPoints3
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- William NylanderAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:30Jack Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (7)5–2
- P216:17Jack Hughes Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (6), Simon Nemec (3)4–2
- P27:03Matias Maccelli Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (11), John Tavares (5)3–2
- P24:54Brenden Dillon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Glendening (2), Arseny Gritsyuk (4)3–1
- P23:20Cody Glass Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (3), Luke Hughes (5)2–1
- P21:27Jack Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (5), Brett Pesce (3)1–1
- P16:36John Tavares Goal (4) Batted, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (4), William Nylander (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:27Jack Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (5), Brett Pesce (3)NJ 1 – 1 TOR · NJ 31% → 48% +17NJ 31% → 48%+17 pts
- P23:20Cody Glass Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (3), Luke Hughes (5)NJ 2 – 1 TOR · NJ 48% → 66% +18NJ 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P24:54Brenden Dillon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Glendening (2), Arseny Gritsyuk (4)NJ 3 – 1 TOR · NJ 67% → 82% +15NJ 67% → 82%+15 pts
- P27:03Matias Maccelli Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (11), John Tavares (5)NJ 3 – 2 TOR · TOR 17% → 33% +15TOR 17% → 33%+15 pts
- P216:17Jack Hughes Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (6), Simon Nemec (3)NJ 4 – 2 TOR · NJ 71% → 87% +16NJ 71% → 87%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML NJ +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- NJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.7 – 2.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +9 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +83 Elo | TOR 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.76th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.314th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 50.6%15th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 32 |
| 10th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 32 |
| 4th of 321532 | Opponent Elo | 149323rd of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Elo rating | 15348th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–4 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 6.