Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists2
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints2
Sabres- Mattias SamuelssonGoals2
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Mattias SamuelssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:59Alex Tuch Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Owen Power (2)3–5
- P31:55Dakota Joshua Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (2), Nicolas Roy (2)3–4
- P213:10Mattias Samuelsson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (6), Peyton Krebs (3)2–4
- P27:20Tage Thompson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (3), Jiri Kulich (1)2–3
- P112:45Auston Matthews Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: John Tavares (6), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (6)2–2
- P16:12Jiri Kulich Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (7), Tage Thompson (4)1–2
- P15:01William Nylander Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (5), Brandon Carlo (1)1–1
- P14:38Mattias Samuelsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (3), Alex Tuch (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:12Jiri Kulich Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (7), Tage Thompson (4)TOR 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 48% → 63% +15BUF 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P112:45Auston Matthews Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: John Tavares (6), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (6)TOR 2 – 2 BUF · TOR 36% → 52% +16TOR 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P27:20Tage Thompson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (3), Jiri Kulich (1)TOR 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 48% → 68% +19BUF 48% → 68%+19 pts
- P213:10Mattias Samuelsson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (6), Peyton Krebs (3)TOR 2 – 4 BUF · BUF 69% → 85% +16BUF 69% → 85%+16 pts
- P31:55Dakota Joshua Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (2), Nicolas Roy (2)TOR 3 – 4 BUF · TOR 10% → 26% +17TOR 10% → 26%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -120 / BUF +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- BUF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +11 Elo | TOR 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 47.2%24th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 92.6%4th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
| 21st of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15098th of 32 |
| 8th of 321528 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–5 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | — | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–2 BUF in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.