Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tyson KozakGoals1
- Jack QuinnAssists1
- Tyson KozakPoints1
Canadiens- Jake EvansGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:29Jake Evans Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (9)2–4
- P312:30Tyson Kozak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (1), Rasmus Dahlin (5)2–3
- P311:38Lane Hutson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (3)1–3
- P32:57Juraj Slafkovský Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (3), Nick Suzuki (8)1–2
- P26:51Jiri Kulich Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Zach Benson (6)1–1
- P18:29Oliver Kapanen Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ivan Demidov (4), Alex Newhook (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:29Oliver Kapanen Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ivan Demidov (4), Alex Newhook (2)BUF 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 56% → 70% +15MTL 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P26:51Jiri Kulich Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Zach Benson (6)BUF 1 – 1 MTL · BUF 27% → 45% +18BUF 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P32:57Juraj Slafkovský Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (3), Nick Suzuki (8)BUF 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 53% → 78% +25MTL 53% → 78%+25 pts
- P311:38Lane Hutson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (3)BUF 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 85% → 98% +13MTL 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P312:30Tyson Kozak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (1), Rasmus Dahlin (5)BUF 2 – 3 MTL · BUF 2% → 14% +12BUF 2% → 14%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 56%
- ML BUF +120 / MTL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- MTL: Elo 55.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -128
- BUF +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.6 – 2.9 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +40 Elo | MTL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 32 |
| 25th of 3246.0% | Shot share | 51.5%13th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3292.9% | Save percentage | 88.7%24th of 32 |
| 28th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 32 |
| 8th of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 148626th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321485 | Elo rating | 148921st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–3 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–6 MTL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 8.