Nashville Predators at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:57Cole Caufield Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (7), Mike Matheson (3)2–3
- P319:40Cole Caufield Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (4)2–2
- P311:21Nick Perbix Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (1)2–1
- P36:02Oliver Kapanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (3), Kaiden Guhle (1)1–1
- P211:36Steven Stamkos Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (3), Luke Evangelista (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:36Steven Stamkos Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (3), Luke Evangelista (3)NSH 1 – 0 MTL · NSH 46% → 66% +21NSH 46% → 66%+21 pts
- P36:02Oliver Kapanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (3), Kaiden Guhle (1)NSH 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 25% → 53% +28MTL 25% → 53%+28 pts
- P311:21Nick Perbix Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (1)NSH 2 – 1 MTL · NSH 48% → 82% +34NSH 48% → 82%+34 pts
- P319:40Cole Caufield Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (4)NSH 2 – 2 MTL · MTL <1% → 50% +50MTL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT4:57Cole Caufield Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (7), Mike Matheson (3)NSH 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 50% → 100% +50MTL 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 56%
- ML NSH +120 / MTL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MTL: Elo 58.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -128
- NSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.6 – 2.9 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +4 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +58 Elo | MTL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.86th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.88th of 32 |
| 21st of 3247.6% | Shot share | 49.0%19th of 32 |
| 9th of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 14th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 31 |
| 16th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 148724th of 32 |
| 27th of 321468 | Elo rating | 148921st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NSH |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–49 | 50–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–30 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 46–27 |
| Overs–unders | 33–49 | 46–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–3 MTL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.