New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists2
- Mika ZibanejadPoints2
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Jayden StrubleAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:26Noah Dobson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (1), Josh Anderson (1)4–3
- P35:51Artemi Panarin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (1), Vladislav Gavrikov (1)4–2
- P34:11Matthew Robertson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (5), Conor Sheary (2)3–2
- P30:34J.T. Miller Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Adam Fox (3), Artemi Panarin (4)2–2
- P111:56Mika Zibanejad Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (2), Artemi Panarin (3)1–2
- P13:42Nick Suzuki Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (3), Brendan Gallagher (5)0–2
- P11:33Juraj Slafkovský Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:33Juraj Slafkovský Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (3)NYR 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 54% → 68% +14MTL 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P30:34J.T. Miller Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Adam Fox (3), Artemi Panarin (4)NYR 2 – 2 MTL · NYR 24% → 48% +23NYR 24% → 48%+23 pts
- P34:11Matthew Robertson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (5), Conor Sheary (2)NYR 3 – 2 MTL · NYR 48% → 74% +27NYR 48% → 74%+27 pts
- P35:51Artemi Panarin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (1), Vladislav Gavrikov (1)NYR 4 – 2 MTL · NYR 76% → 93% +17NYR 76% → 93%+17 pts
- P38:26Noah Dobson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (1), Josh Anderson (1)NYR 4 – 3 MTL · MTL 5% → 22% +16MTL 5% → 22%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 54%
- ML NYR +110 / MTL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- MTL: Elo 53.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MTL -119
- NYR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.1 – 3.4 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −1 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +21 Elo | MTL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 321.8 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 32 |
| 1st of 321.5 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 32 |
| 7th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 51.4%13th of 32 |
| 1st of 3296.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 8th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 10th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 148226th of 32 |
| 13th of 321508 | Elo rating | 149120th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–2 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–2 MTL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.