Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- Albert JohanssonAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints1
Sabres- Jack QuinnGoals1
- Jack QuinnAssists2
- Jack QuinnPoints3
Scoring summary
- P38:10Alex Tuch Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Josh Doan (4), Ryan McLeod (2)2–4
- P34:15Jack Quinn Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (1), Bowen Byram (2)2–3
- P218:20Emmitt Finnie Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Larkin (7), Lucas Raymond (4)2–2
- P216:28Tyson Kozak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (3), Mattias Samuelsson (2)1–2
- P211:37Jason Zucker Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (2), Conor Timmins (1)1–1
- P23:00J.T. Compher Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Albert Johansson (2), Jonatan Berggren (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:00J.T. Compher Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Albert Johansson (2), Jonatan Berggren (1)DET 1 – 0 BUF · DET 47% → 65% +18DET 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P211:37Jason Zucker Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (2), Conor Timmins (1)DET 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 32% → 53% +21BUF 32% → 53%+21 pts
- P216:28Tyson Kozak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (3), Mattias Samuelsson (2)DET 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 53% → 74% +22BUF 53% → 74%+22 pts
- P218:20Emmitt Finnie Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Larkin (7), Lucas Raymond (4)DET 2 – 2 BUF · DET 25% → 47% +22DET 25% → 47%+22 pts
- P34:15Jack Quinn Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (1), Bowen Byram (2)DET 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 52% → 78% +26BUF 52% → 78%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 54%
- ML DET +110 / BUF -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- BUF: Elo 52.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +7 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · BUF: Colten Ellis (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +19 Elo | BUF 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.528th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.521st of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 46.7%24th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 92.5%6th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 32 |
| 4th of 321529 | Opponent Elo | 15138th of 32 |
| 14th of 321509 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–1 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–2 BUF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.