Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Justin KirklandAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints1
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals2
- Matthew KniesAssists1
- Matthew KniesPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:56Max Domi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (9), John Tavares (8)3–4
- P314:49Samuel Honzek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (4)3–3
- P33:45Matthew Knies Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P219:25Matthew Knies Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (12)2–2
- P217:55Joel Farabee Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Kirkland (1), Rasmus Andersson (1)2–1
- P23:13Max Domi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (3), Matias Maccelli (2)1–1
- P14:33Morgan Frost Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (2), Nazem Kadri (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:55Joel Farabee Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Kirkland (1), Rasmus Andersson (1)CGY 2 – 1 TOR · CGY 43% → 66% +23CGY 43% → 66%+23 pts
- P219:25Matthew Knies Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (12)CGY 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 33% → 57% +24TOR 33% → 57%+24 pts
- P33:45Matthew Knies Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 56% → 80% +24TOR 56% → 80%+24 pts
- P314:49Samuel Honzek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (4)CGY 3 – 3 TOR · CGY 9% → 47% +37CGY 9% → 47%+37 pts
- P317:56Max Domi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (9), John Tavares (8)CGY 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 52% → 98% +46TOR 52% → 98%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML CGY +150 / TOR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 63.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -159
- CGY +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +7 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +92 Elo | TOR 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.1 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.727th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.3% | Shot share | 49.5%16th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 88.3%25th of 32 |
| 27th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 32 |
| 1st of 321525 | Opponent Elo | 149323rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321475 | Elo rating | 15279th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–6 | 2–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–7 |
| Favorite | — | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | — |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 0–4 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.