Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals2
- Jack EichelAssists4
- Mark StonePoints4
Scoring summary
- P32:37Mark Stone Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (3), Jack Eichel (10)1–6
- P219:06Mitchell Marner Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (11), Jack Eichel (9)1–5
- P23:57Ivan Barbashev Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (1), Jeremy Lauzon (2)1–4
- P115:03Mark Stone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (8)1–3
- P15:39Tomas Hertl Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (10), Jack Eichel (7)1–2
- P13:42Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (4), MacKenzie Weegar (2)1–1
- P10:46Mitchell Marner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:46Mitchell Marner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (4)CGY 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 69% → 81% +12VGK 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P13:42Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (4), MacKenzie Weegar (2)CGY 1 – 1 VGK · CGY 19% → 31% +12CGY 19% → 31%+12 pts
- P15:39Tomas Hertl Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (10), Jack Eichel (7)CGY 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 68% → 80% +12VGK 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P115:03Mark Stone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (8)CGY 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 80% → 90% +10VGK 80% → 90%+10 pts
- P23:57Ivan Barbashev Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (1), Jeremy Lauzon (2)CGY 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 91% → 96% +6VGK 91% → 96%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 69%
- ML CGY +210 / VGK -260
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 62.8%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -224
- CGY +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.7 – 3.8 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +91 Elo | VGK 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 67.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.0 | Goals scored | 4.03rd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.623rd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.8 | Margin | +0.413th of 32 |
| 29th of 3243.9% | Shot share | 56.3%5th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 86.3%28th of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
| 7th of 321521 | Opponent Elo | 146730th of 32 |
| 24th of 321481 | Elo rating | 15338th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 4–5 VGK in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.