New York Rangers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Noah LabaGoals1
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists1
- Noah LabaPoints1
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals2
- Mikael BacklundAssists2
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:27Blake Coleman Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (3)1–5
- P36:42Blake Coleman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (2)1–4
- P212:28Yegor Sharangovich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (1), Joel Farabee (3)1–3
- P19:31Noah Laba Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (1), Vladislav Gavrikov (2)1–2
- P19:21Kevin Bahl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (4), Nazem Kadri (5)0–2
- P11:42Nazem Kadri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (1), Joel Hanley (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:42Nazem Kadri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (1), Joel Hanley (1)NYR 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 45% → 59% +15CGY 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P19:21Kevin Bahl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (4), Nazem Kadri (5)NYR 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 61% → 75% +14CGY 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P19:31Noah Laba Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (1), Vladislav Gavrikov (2)NYR 1 – 2 CGY · NYR 25% → 39% +14NYR 25% → 39%+14 pts
- P212:28Yegor Sharangovich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (1), Joel Farabee (3)NYR 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 67% → 84% +17CGY 67% → 84%+17 pts
- P36:42Blake Coleman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (2)NYR 1 – 4 CGY · CGY 93% → 99% +6CGY 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 55%
- ML NYR -135 / CGY +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 49.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +1 Elo | CGY 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 1.832nd of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.828th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −2.032nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 48.2%22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.6% | Save percentage | 88.2%27th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 0–429th of 32 |
| 24th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 15281st of 32 |
| 16th of 321502 | Elo rating | 147027th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | — |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–2 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.