Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints2
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals1
- Josh MorrisseyAssists3
- Josh MorrisseyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:52Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (2)3–5
- P38:27Blake Coleman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (1), Kevin Bahl (2)3–4
- P218:50Alex Iafallo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (5), Mark Scheifele (5)2–4
- P213:56Mikael Backlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (1), Samuel Honzek (1)2–3
- P29:50Gabriel Vilardi Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (4), Josh Morrissey (5)1–3
- P26:24Jonathan Toews Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (4)1–2
- P25:19Kyle Connor Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (3), Dylan DeMelo (4)1–1
- P15:18Nazem Kadri Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (3), Zayne Parekh (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:18Nazem Kadri Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (3), Zayne Parekh (1)CGY 1 – 0 WPG · CGY 46% → 61% +15CGY 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P25:19Kyle Connor Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (3), Dylan DeMelo (4)CGY 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 35% → 53% +19WPG 35% → 53%+19 pts
- P26:24Jonathan Toews Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (4)CGY 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 53% → 71% +18WPG 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P213:56Mikael Backlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (1), Samuel Honzek (1)CGY 2 – 3 WPG · CGY 12% → 27% +15CGY 12% → 27%+15 pts
- P218:50Alex Iafallo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (5), Mark Scheifele (5)CGY 2 – 4 WPG · WPG 75% → 90% +15WPG 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML CGY +110 / WPG -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- WPG: Elo 60.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- CGY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.6 – 2.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −17 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +74 Elo | WPG 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 321.6 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.32nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−2.0 | Margin | +1.07th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3247.9% | Shot share | 45.2%27th of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 93.4%2nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321526 | Opponent Elo | 148528th of 32 |
| 26th of 321473 | Elo rating | 15601st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | — | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–4 WPG in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.