Seattle Kraken at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals2
- Jaden SchwartzAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints3
JetsScoring summary
- P318:43Jordan Eberle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (4), Joey Daccord (1)3–0
- P318:20Jaden Schwartz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P22:28Jaden Schwartz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (3), Adam Larsson (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:28Jaden Schwartz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (3), Adam Larsson (2)SEA 1 – 0 WPG · SEA 38% → 56% +18SEA 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P318:20Jaden Schwartz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 2 – 0 WPG · SEA 98% → >99% +2SEA 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P318:43Jordan Eberle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (4), Joey Daccord (1)SEA 3 – 0 WPG · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 65%
- ML SEA +175 / WPG -210
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 67.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -186
- SEA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.3 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +4 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +128 Elo | WPG 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 64.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.23rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.6 | Margin | +1.71st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3247.2% | Shot share | 43.8%31st of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 93.0%1st of 32 |
| 28th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 148526th of 32 |
| 24th of 321475 | Elo rating | 15671st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–5 WPG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.