Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Kyle ConnorAssists1
- Jonathan ToewsPoints1
Flames- Ryan LombergAssists1
- Ryan LombergPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:06Mark Scheifele Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (6), Josh Morrissey (2)2–1
- P32:41Jonathan Toews Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (1), Nino Niederreiter (4)1–1
- P213:22Rasmus Andersson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (2), Ryan Lomberg (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:22Rasmus Andersson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (2), Ryan Lomberg (1)WPG 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 46% → 68% +21CGY 46% → 68%+21 pts
- P32:41Jonathan Toews Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (1), Nino Niederreiter (4)WPG 1 – 1 CGY · WPG 27% → 53% +26WPG 27% → 53%+26 pts
- P315:06Mark Scheifele Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (6), Josh Morrissey (2)WPG 2 – 1 CGY · WPG 52% → 91% +39WPG 52% → 91%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 55%
- ML WPG -135 / CGY +115
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- WPG: Elo 58.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +57 Elo | WPG 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.2 | Goals scored | 1.832nd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 4.230th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.8 | Margin | −2.331st of 32 |
| 30th of 3243.5% | Shot share | 44.8%28th of 32 |
| 7th of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 87.0%29th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 32 |
| 24th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 15246th of 32 |
| 1st of 321565 | Elo rating | 147725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–2 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | — |
| Underdog | — | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–3 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.