Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints1
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals1
- Jonathan ToewsAssists2
- Nino NiederreiterPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:56Michael Bunting Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (1), Brady Skjei (2)1–4
- P316:52Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (3), Nino Niederreiter (3)0–4
- P35:26Logan Stanley Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (3), Jonathan Toews (2)0–3
- P110:25Nino Niederreiter Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (1), Dylan DeMelo (3)0–2
- P12:39Mark Scheifele Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (5), Alex Iafallo (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:39Mark Scheifele Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (5), Alex Iafallo (2)NSH 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 62% → 75% +13WPG 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P110:25Nino Niederreiter Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (1), Dylan DeMelo (3)NSH 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 75% → 86% +11WPG 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P35:26Logan Stanley Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (3), Jonathan Toews (2)NSH 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 95% → >99% +4WPG 95% → >99%+4 pts
- P316:52Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (3), Nino Niederreiter (3)NSH 0 – 4 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P318:56Michael Bunting Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (1), Brady Skjei (2)NSH 1 – 4 WPG · NSH 0% → 0% +0NSH 0% → 0%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 62%
- ML NSH +155 / WPG -185
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 68.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -166
- NSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.4 – 3.1 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +2 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +131 Elo | WPG 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 62.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 4.33rd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.53rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3246.1% | Shot share | 43.5%29th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%10th of 32 |
| 18th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 32 |
| 16th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 32 |
| 28th of 321466 | Elo rating | 15621st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NSH |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–49 | 47–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–30 | 33–37 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 33–49 | 42–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 4–4 WPG in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.