Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Mike MathesonGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Mike MathesonPoints1
Flames- Adam KlapkaGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists1
- Adam KlapkaPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:00Mike Matheson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (5), Alex Newhook (4)2–1
- P35:56Adam Klapka Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (2)1–1
- P117:09Zachary Bolduc Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (10), Lane Hutson (5)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:09Zachary Bolduc Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (10), Lane Hutson (5)MTL 1 – 0 CGY · MTL 51% → 68% +17MTL 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P35:56Adam Klapka Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (2)MTL 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 22% → 49% +27CGY 22% → 49%+27 pts
- OT1:00Mike Matheson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (5), Alex Newhook (4)MTL 2 – 1 CGY · MTL 50% → 92% +42MTL 50% → 92%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 51%
- ML MTL -115 / CGY -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- MTL: Elo 48.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MTL -104
- CGY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.8 – 2.7 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | 0 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +11 Elo | CGY 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 1.732nd of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.930th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −2.131st of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 46.4%25th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 87.7%29th of 32 |
| 9th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 0–328th of 32 |
| 26th of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 15312nd of 32 |
| 20th of 321492 | Elo rating | 147524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | — |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 0–4 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.