San Jose Sharks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals3
- William EklundAssists3
- Macklin CelebriniPoints5
Rangers- Taylor RaddyshGoals3
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- Taylor RaddyshPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:38Will Smith Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (6), Alex Nedeljkovic (1)6–5
- P311:50Taylor Raddysh Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (4), Adam Fox (4)5–5
- P36:31Will Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (4), Macklin Celebrini (5)5–4
- P219:54Macklin Celebrini Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (6), Dmitry Orlov (7)4–4
- P212:10Taylor Raddysh Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–4
- P26:47Juuso Parssinen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (3)3–3
- P24:04Mika Zibanejad Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (2), J.T. Miller (3)3–2
- P119:51Macklin Celebrini Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (5), William Eklund (3)3–1
- P114:19Taylor Raddysh Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (4), Carson Soucy (1)2–1
- P16:17Macklin Celebrini Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (2), Dmitry Orlov (6)2–0
- P11:58Adam Gaudette Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (2), Michael Misa (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:47Juuso Parssinen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (3)SJ 3 – 3 NYR · NYR 47% → 66% +19NYR 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P219:54Macklin Celebrini Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (6), Dmitry Orlov (7)SJ 4 – 4 NYR · SJ 17% → 38% +20SJ 17% → 38%+20 pts
- P36:31Will Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (4), Macklin Celebrini (5)SJ 5 – 4 NYR · SJ 40% → 69% +30SJ 40% → 69%+30 pts
- P311:50Taylor Raddysh Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (4), Adam Fox (4)SJ 5 – 5 NYR · NYR 22% → 58% +36NYR 22% → 58%+36 pts
- OT1:38Will Smith Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (6), Alex Nedeljkovic (1)SJ 6 – 5 NYR · SJ 45% → 92% +47SJ 45% → 92%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 71%
- ML SJ +230 / NYR -280
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- NYR: Elo 72.1%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- NYR -243
- SJ +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.6 – 3.9 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1375 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +4 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +165 Elo | NYR 72.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 74.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.031st of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.8 | Goals allowed | 1.92nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−2.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3242.3% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 32 |
| 31st of 3286.3% | Save percentage | 94.7%1st of 32 |
| 29th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150611th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321375 | Elo rating | 150615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | — | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–3 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.