San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Collin GrafGoals1
- Collin GrafAssists1
- Collin GrafPoints2
Islanders- Matthew SchaeferGoals1
- Matthew SchaeferAssists1
- Matthew SchaeferPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:16Macklin Celebrini Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (5), Mario Ferraro (1)3–4
- P26:38Matthew Schaefer Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (1), Kyle Palmieri (3)2–4
- P119:28Emil Heineman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (2), Max Shabanov (2)2–3
- P114:16Adam Gaudette Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Misa (1), Collin Graf (1)2–2
- P110:30Casey Cizikas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (2)1–2
- P19:26Bo Horvat Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (4), Matthew Schaefer (5)1–1
- P18:29Collin Graf Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:29Collin Graf Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (3)SJ 1 – 0 NYI · SJ 34% → 50% +15SJ 34% → 50%+15 pts
- P19:26Bo Horvat Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (4), Matthew Schaefer (5)SJ 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 50% → 65% +15NYI 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P110:30Casey Cizikas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (2)SJ 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 65% → 79% +13NYI 65% → 79%+13 pts
- P114:16Adam Gaudette Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Misa (1), Collin Graf (1)SJ 2 – 2 NYI · SJ 21% → 35% +14SJ 21% → 35%+14 pts
- P119:28Emil Heineman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (2), Max Shabanov (2)SJ 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 64% → 79% +15NYI 64% → 79%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 67%
- ML SJ +190 / NYI -225
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- NYI: Elo 67.6%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- NYI -201
- SJ +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.7 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −3 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +128 Elo | NYI 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 67.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 31st of 325.0 | Goals allowed | 3.828th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−2.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3239.1% | Shot share | 51.3%13th of 32 |
| 30th of 3286.5% | Save percentage | 87.8%26th of 32 |
| 28th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 32 |
| 15th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15237th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321376 | Elo rating | 146727th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | — | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–3 NYI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.